The Helicopter Theory
Amir Taheri believes dictators in the Middle East are trying to wait Bush out - and he is right. Consider that in the view of a military professor in Tehran:the entire recent history of the U.S. could be narrated with the help of the
image of "the last helicopter." It was that image in Saigon that concluded the
Vietnam War under Gerald Ford. Jimmy Carter had five helicopters fleeing from
the Iranian desert, leaving behind the charred corpses of eight American
soldiers. Under Ronald Reagan the helicopters carried the corpses of 241 Marines
murdered in their sleep in a Hezbollah suicide attack. Under the first President
Bush, the helicopter flew from Safwan, in southern Iraq, with Gen. Norman
Schwarzkopf aboard, leaving behind Saddam Hussein's generals, who could not
believe why they had been allowed live to fight their domestic foes, and
America, another day. Bill Clinton's helicopter was a Black Hawk, downed in
Mogadishu and delivering 16 American soldiers into the hands of a murderous
crowd.
The only clear fact that all sides agree on is that Bush will not have a helicopter moment. An understanding of the viewpoint in Arab capitals helps put recent developments in context.
Mr. Ahmadinejad's defiant rhetoric is based on a strategy known in Middle
Eastern capitals as "waiting Bush out." "We are sure the U.S. will return to
saner policies," says Manuchehr Motakki, Iran's new Foreign Minister.
Mr.
Ahmadinejad believes that the world is heading for a clash of civilizations with
the Middle East as the main battlefield. In that clash Iran will lead the Muslim
world against the "Crusader-Zionist camp" led by America. Mr. Bush might have
led the U.S. into "a brief moment of triumph." But the U.S. is a "sunset"
(ofuli) power while Iran is a sunrise (tolu'ee) one and, once Mr. Bush is gone,
a future president would admit defeat and order a retreat as all of Mr. Bush's
predecessors have done since Jimmy Carter.
The only question is - will it work? The vipers of the Middle East watch and wait.
posted by JM @ 4:50 PM
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