Sunday, July 02, 2006

Iraq as the Spanish Civil War

The Belmont Club: A Modern Homage to Catalonia

As you can see via the link above, wretchard at the Belmont Club has an interesting take on Iraq's current situation:

to those who argue that Iraq is on the verge of civil war, perhaps the most
accurate comparison is with the Spanish Civil War, in which a global conflict
played itself out in miniature within a single country. It is in effect, a
cockpit in which global opponents are fighting through Iraqi proxies.


This is highly perceptive. It's ironic in the sense that civil war has not broken out in Iraq, and yet the intensity level is so high on the part of the global and regional players fighting through Iraqi proxies that the Spanish Civil War model probably does fit the best. Put in this perspective, it is much easier to understand why things are still messy over there after 3+ years of US presence. I believe that the main (not the only) reason that Afghanistan is as calm as it is compared to Iraq is that its population has been broken by 3 straight decades of warfare. Iraq, on the other hand, was an absolute tinderbox waiting to explode. They are not weary, they are not tired, I think that they are just getting warmed up. Scores are still being settled daily, wrongs are being avenged, and it's ugly. The crazy thing is - it's not about us. The media makes it seem like it is, but I think much of the violence has nothing to do with our presence there.

A question - who will be our Orwell this time around? You may remember that his "Homage to Catalonia" chronicled his experiences in the Spanish Civil War, when he fought for the communist side but quickly became disillusioned with them. This generation's Orwell will be found on the blogosphere.

Another question - are there terrible things on the horizon which will make us forget about Iraq? In 1936 the Spanish Civil War raged, but in a few short years Hitler would take over Europe and start WW2. Importantly, the players on both sides in WW2 were almost identical to the players in the (proxy) Spanish Civil War. War with Iran would complete the analogy - let us hope it doesn't come to pass.

posted by JM @ 6:12 AM