Catch-43

Good News and Bad News From Iraq

First the good news - Al Qaeda has been thoroughly defeated in Iraq. Ever since Zarqawi's death, the network has been quickly rolled up and rendered ineffective. They are not doing anything newsworthy nowadays. That is significant, and should be trumpeted by the administration. Per usual, they say nothing about it and receive no credit whatsoever. Whatever you think of Bush, can we all just agree that his team is poor at communication?

Now the bad news - Sunni vs. Shiite violence has gone through the roof lately, and represents a much greater threat than Al Qaeda and their merry band of headhackers. John Abizaid, Commander of all US forces in the Middle East, had this to say:

"I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I've seen it, in
Baghdad in particular, and that if not stopped it is possible that Iraq could
move toward civil war,"

The problems all stem from Baghdad, where the insurgency relocated after successful efforts to kick it out of Fallujah, Ramadi, Mosul, and various strongholds along the Tigris and Euphrates all the way to the western Syrian border. The term "insurgency" is kind of an umbrella, in that it is composed of Sunni insurgents, Shiite militiamen and death squads, and Baathists. Notice I am not even including Al Qaeda in the mix anymore (even though they are still hanging around). All parties realize that whoever wins the Battle of Baghdad wins the nation. It has one quarter of Iraq's population, and its symbolic value is much larger than that.

Anyhow, Baghdad is a complete mess. The Iraqi Army has done a decent job, but the Police are rife with corruption, infiltrated to the max by Iranian agents and Moqtada al-Sadr's militiamen.

Which brings me to my next point of bad news - Moqtada al-Sadr has a fearsome milita, the Mahdi Army, which resembles Hezbollah in Lebanon circa 1983. In other words, it is Hezbollah part 2 in its infancy. We should strangle the Mahdi Army in its crib. With the passing of Zarqawi, it is the single biggest threat to Iraq today. It is powerful enough that the most influential and powerful man in Iraq, Ayatollah Sistani (Shiite), must strongly condemn Israel's war on Hezbollah just so he does not lose ground politically to al-Sadr. Iran's hand in building up and supporting the Madhi Army is strong, to say the least. Iran wants stability in Iraq, but on its own terms. In the near term, Iran is committing to sowing the seeds of violence in Iraq - and its campaign has been successful. This is why I consider Iraq to be similar to the Spanish Civil War. It is a proxy way, just like Israel's war with Hezbollah.

The next phase of cleaning up Iraq will consist of an all-out war on Shiite militias, which will be much more difficult than combating Sunni insurgents. Not a reason to quit and pull out, but a strong reason to stiffen our spines and respond with fortitude.

posted by JM @ 3:47 PM