Trouble in Georgia
Tensions are escalating between Russia and Georgia, following the arrest of four Russian military officers accused of spying last week and the subsequent levelling of sanctions by Russia.The arrests were met with outrage by the Russians. Following the arrests, the pro-U.S. Georgian government released the four officers and sent them back to Russia (probably due to pressure from western nations eager to avoid a confrontation). Yesterday (per the Wall Street Journal), Russia cut off all flights, trains, shipping, roads, and postal links to Georgia, as well as closing Georgian-owned businesses in Russia and imposing new visa restrictions on Georgians. The Russian Parliament this week will consider a bill to block Georgians in Russia from making bank transfers to their relatives at home. These actions look suspiciously like a prelude to war.
Russia is angry with Georgia for:
a) asserting itself (independent of Russia)
b) taking a pro - U.S., pro-democracy line
c) becoming a part of NATO
Georgia is angry with Russia for:
a) supporting separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
b) attempting to make Georgia part of its sphere of influence (a la Soviet times)
The United States is eager to extend its influence into Central Asia, and until recently had appeared to be doing so on the strength of a series of democratic revolutions and U.S.-friendly regimes. However, the Russians, flush with cash from high oil prices, have become increasingly bold in their opposition (sound familiar?).
The United States is anxious to avoid hostilities because it needs Russian support for the War on Terror and for sanctions and/or military action against Iran, and also because it has a strong interest in a stable flow of oil to world markets. The Europeans are anxious to avoid hostilities because they don't want their supply of oil from Russia cut off.
While the mainstream media obsesses about the Foley scandal, keep your eyes on this story - it could evolve into a real problem (and I would guess that it is very high on the Bush Administration's radar screen right now).
posted by JM @ 3:53 PM
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