Catch-43

When North Korea Falls

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200610/kaplan-korea

For anyone with an interest in North Korea's current situation and what the future might like, this is a must read from the Atlantic Online. I could write a much longer post on this, but as you have probably surmised from my lack of posting - I don't have the time. I found the section below fascinating:

Fortunately, the demise of North Korea is more likely to be drawn out. Robert Collins, a retired Army master sergeant and now a civilian area expert for the American military in South Korea, outlined for me seven phases of collapse in the North:

Phase One: resource depletion

Phase Two: the failure to maintain infrastructure around the country because of resource depletion

Phase Three: the rise of independent fiefs informally controlled by local party apparatchiks or warlords, along with widespread corruption to circumvent a failing central government

Phase Four: the attempted suppression of these fiefs by the KFR once it feels that they have become powerful enough

Phase Five: active resistance against the central government

Phase Six: the fracture of the regime

Phase Seven: the formation of new national leadership

North Korea probably reached Phase Four in the mid-1990s, but was saved by subsidies from China and South Korea, as well as by famine aid from the United States. It has now gone back to Phase Three.

posted by JM @ 6:05 PM