Quick Take on Iran Hostage Crisis
Iran attempted to take U.S. soldiers hostage last year, but our forces fought back and did not allow it. A similar attempt on the British recently was successful, resulting in the capture of 15 British sailors in international waters. They were stripped, bound, blindfolded, and made to believe that their execution was imminent. Under duress, they "confessed" to violating Iranian territorial waters even though they this was not in fact true. They were released last week after the release of a prominent Iranian held captive in Iraq - a supposed diplomat whose true purpose was aiding and abetting the Shia insurgency. There has been speculation that the British gave up more than that in order to get its sailors back - but if so it hasn't leaked out to th press yet.I think it is more likely that Ahmadinejad sees the growing internal unrest in Iran and wanted to provoke the West into a confrontation in order to unite the Iranian people against an external threat. We did not comply by striking Iran militarily, so he played his hand as long as he could and then gave the hostages back, using the opportunity to show the Arab world that he, unlike the vicious neocons at Guantanomo Bay, treated prisoners of war humanely. He also probably wanted to emphasize that the "soft power" of the Europeans (i.e. negotiations not backed up with the credible threat of military force) could be successful, so as to lull the West into a false sense of security and to make the U.S. look like the warmongering nation. Great for propaganda purposes, especially with respect to the Al-Jazeera and John Murtha crowd.
It's important to note, too, that the Iranian government is very divided right now - there are many in it who do not agree with Ahmadinejad. They do not like the international isolation that his antics bring to Iran, and they may well have reined him in (i.e. forced him to give the hostages back). Anyhow, a very interesting episode. Maybe an indication that our recent change of tactics in Iraq vis a vis the Iranians is putting some pressure on them?
posted by JM @ 11:42 AM
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