Monday, October 30, 2006

OPEC "concerned"

... about the falling price of oil.

Apparently, crude oil trading below $60/bbl (currently about $58) gives them the heebie-jeebies. So much so that they are going to cut oil production. Doesn't matter that the price of oil has doubled in the last few years, and that as recently as the late 1990's it was at about $10/bbl.

OPEC is as greedy as ever, and should be vilified with the same vigor that is applied to western oil executives whenever a camera and a liberal are in the same 10 mile radius.

When North Korea Falls

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200610/kaplan-korea

For anyone with an interest in North Korea's current situation and what the future might like, this is a must read from the Atlantic Online. I could write a much longer post on this, but as you have probably surmised from my lack of posting - I don't have the time. I found the section below fascinating:

Fortunately, the demise of North Korea is more likely to be drawn out. Robert Collins, a retired Army master sergeant and now a civilian area expert for the American military in South Korea, outlined for me seven phases of collapse in the North:


Phase One: resource depletion


Phase Two: the failure to maintain infrastructure around the country because of resource depletion


Phase Three: the rise of independent fiefs informally controlled by local party apparatchiks or warlords, along with widespread corruption to circumvent a failing central government


Phase Four: the attempted suppression of these fiefs by the KFR once it feels that they have become powerful enough


Phase Five: active resistance against the central government


Phase Six: the fracture of the regime


Phase Seven: the formation of new national leadership

North Korea probably reached Phase Four in the mid-1990s, but was saved by subsidies from China and South Korea, as well as by famine aid from the United States. It has now gone back to Phase Three.

More on Iraq

Here is a clear look at the Iraq situation. I apologize for being repetitive on this topic, but I wouldn't post if I didn't feel it was necessary (and interesting). As always, please read the whole thing.

We need to be realist but not defeatist. We need to understand that there is a need of utmost urgency to deal with many of the problems of Iraq but we must not give in to panic.

So said Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih on Monday, in a BBC interview while in London for talks with Tony Blair. If only such statesmanship prevailed on this side of the Atlantic, where election politics and a spate of critical new books have combined to paint an increasingly desperate--and false--picture of what's happening in Iraq.

Bush on Iraq

Bush spoke quite candidly with a group of conservative journalists the other day on Iraq. Results were interesting - please read the whole thing. Enjoyed this exchange:

“The American people were solidly behind this when you went in and you toppled the Taliban, when you go in and you topple Saddam,” columnist Mark Steyn said to the president. “But when it just seems to be a kind of thankless, semi-colonial, policing, defensive operation, with no end — I mean, where is the offense in this?”

“We are on the offense,” Bush answered. U.S. forces are taking it to the enemy every day. But he explained that the administration had made a decision that in some ways has hobbled its ability to show just how much it is on the offense. “We have made a conscious effort not to be a body-count team,” Bush said, in a clear reference to the tabulations of enemy killed that became a hallmark of the Vietnam War. And that, in turn, “gives you the impression that [U.S. troops] are just there — kind of moving around, directing traffic, and somebody takes a shot at them and they’re down.”

Bush took pains to stress that is not the case. “Al Qaeda has got special operations teams on them every day,” he said. “The death-squad leaders — well, we had two operations today that created a little news. These boys are after them. Given actionable intelligence, they’re moving hard, and they’re pressing hard. And I don’t want to give you numbers. It’s frustrating, however, because you’re right, it’s the perception that this military power full of decent people is just getting picked off and nothing’s happening. And I share the same frustration you share.”

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

The Democrats' New Strategy on Iraq

Drop the course


“Victory isn’t always about winning,” said Rep. Pelosi. “Those of us who went to college know that sometimes when the going gets tough, the tough drop out. Who among us hasn’t experienced the exhilaration of walking out of the registrar’s office after dropping a course you were failing. America deserves to have that feeling again.”

Sunday, October 22, 2006

The Killings Continue in Russia

Russia continues to deteriorate. Here is a list of recent high-profile killings:

  • The business chief of Russian news agency Itar-Tass, Anatoly Voronin (stabbed to death)
  • Deputy Central Bank governor Andrei Kozlov (gunshot wounds)
  • Journalist Anna Politkovskaya, a critic of President Vladimir Putin (gunshot wounds)
  • Alexander Plokhin, branch head at VTB-24, the retail unit of Russia's second largest bank, Vneshtorgbank (gunshot wounds)
  • Enver Ziganshin, chief engineer of BP Plc's Russian gas unit, OAO Rusia Petroleum (gunshot wounds)

By recent I mean that the earliest murder on this list is from September 30 of this year.

I would add to the list Paul Klebnikov of Forbes magazine, author of Godfather of the Kremlin (an excellent book), who was killed in July 2004. He was a fearless critic of the crony capitalism which plagued Russia's transition to a market economy during the 1990's, and he wasn't much easier on President Putin. See here for further information.

Andrei Kozlov, the Deputy Central Bank governor, was the subject of an extensive article in the Wall Street Journal recently highlighting his achievements and his aims before his death. The following is a good summary (from another site):

Kozlov had taken it as his mission to stabilize and reform Russia's still-volatile banking industry -- to make it less of a resource for a few wealthy and powerful "oligarchs" and more an industry that could serve retail customers. Among his efforts had been a battle against money laundering, actions to close disreputable banks and steps to improve the credit of Russian banks -- including adoption of international accounting standards and tighter capital requirements.

Summarizing Kozlov's accomplishments, The Wall Street Journal quoted John Litwack, the World Bank's lead economist for Russia, who said, "No one contributed more than Andrei Kozlov to the creation of a modern banking system in Russia. We're hoping that Andrei's death will only strengthen the central bank's resolve to carry out the reform to its logical conclusion."

Friday, October 20, 2006

Iraq Roundup

James Robbins on why the current uptick in violence in Iraq is nothing like the Tet offensive, despite what Thomas Friedman says (and President Bush agrees might be a possibility).

Cliff May on how the War on Terror is highly ambiguous - partially due to the nature of the fight and partially due to the nature of its press coverage.

One reason these questions can be elided is that in Iraq, the media have adopted the strange practice of not naming the perpetrators of killings — unless the perpetrators might happen to be Americans. As the scholar Michael Rubin has pointed out, the use of the passive voice in the media has become routine. For example, a recent McClatchy story read: “Nearly 2,700 Iraqi civilians were killed in the city in September.”

“Well, who killed them?” Rubin asks. “Baathist insurgents or Iranian-backed militias? If the public read that Iranian-backed militias killed nearly 2700 civilians, we might be less willing to reward their murderers.”

Another example, this one from the New York Times: “Most of the 500 municipal workers who have been killed here since 2005 have been trash collectors.” Rubin notes: “Again, someone did the killing. Why hide it? It's important to know what we are up against.”Not identifying the killers makes it hard for people to direct outrage against them — and easy to direct it against Americans. Has there ever before been a war in which journalists have given such a gift to their country's enemies?

Iraq Roundup

James Robbins on why the current uptick in violence in Iraq is nothing like the Tet offensive, despite what Thomas Friedman says (and President Bush agrees might be a possibility).

Cliff May on how the War on Terror is highly ambiguous - partially due to the nature of the fight and partially due to the nature of its press coverage.

One reason these questions can be elided is that in Iraq, the media have adopted the strange practice of not naming the perpetrators of killings — unless the perpetrators might happen to be Americans. As the scholar Michael Rubin has pointed out, the use of the passive voice in the media has become routine. For example, a recent McClatchy story read: “Nearly 2,700 Iraqi civilians were killed in the city in September.”

“Well, who killed them?” Rubin asks. “Baathist insurgents or Iranian-backed militias? If the public read that Iranian-backed militias killed nearly 2700 civilians, we might be less willing to reward their murderers.”

Another example, this one from the New York Times: “Most of the 500 municipal workers who have been killed here since 2005 have been trash collectors.” Rubin notes: “Again, someone did the killing. Why hide it? It's important to know what we are up against.”Not identifying the killers makes it hard for people to direct outrage against them — and easy to direct it against Americans. Has there ever before been a war in which journalists have given such a gift to their country's enemies?

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

600,000 Iraqis dead? Um, you make the call

Please see the article here, and remember - if something sounds too good or bad to be true, it probably isn't.

Friday, October 13, 2006

East Asia

The popular narrative is that Iraq and Afghanistan have overextended our military forces so much that we are unable to even contemplate military alternatives with respect to Iran and North Korea.

With that in mind, take a look at this AP article on U.S. military capabilities on the Korean peninsula (hat tip: The Belmont Club).

It appears that South Korea primarily needs our air and naval assets to defend itself, which is precisely what we have - in spades - in east Asia. These are also the assets we are not using in Iraq right now, so the overstretch theory is not as valid as it first appears.

Much of the United States' ground combat might is tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the U.S. is reducing its infantry forces in South Korea. But American air and sea power in east Asia, a key to almost any imaginable military conflict with North Korea, has grown in numbers and reach. ... Michael Green, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a private research group, said in an interview Tuesday that short of a total collapse of North Korea, the U.S. military has what it needs to handle the problem. "The South Korean ground forces are strong enough to handle and deter a North Korean attack on the ground," said Green, who was senior director for Asia on President Bush's National Security Council. "What they need is help with air forces and naval forces, and that is not what we're using in Iraq right now."

Other random thoughts:
  • Japan, Okinawa, Guam, and Hawaii - these are the locations that will matter when and if conflict occurs in Korea (i.e. not Iraq)
  • Our sea-based missile defense capabilities are improving - so much so that President Bush was able to say that our military had a reasonable chance of shooting down the long-range missile used by North Korea in their infamous July 4 missile test
  • As a big advocate of naval power (and heavily influenced by the theories of Alfred Thayer Mahan), I am quite pleased with our carrier-based power projection capabilities halfway across the world - this type of situation seems to me like yet another good example of why a strong blue water Navy is so vital to our strategic success
  • Look for Japan and China to take the lead in confronting North Korea, although China's response will likely be more moderate than Japan's
  • There is a decent chance that the nuclear blast either did not occur at all, or semi-failed - so that is very very slightly heartening (but probably doesn't change the strategic calculus all that much)
  • I think the overstretch theory has more validity when applied to a potential conflict with Iran - so I'm not suggesting that it's flat wrong or anything (or that we don't have a large amount of military commitments around the world)

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Mission to Mars

It is easy to forget, but NASA still has two rovers (Spirit and Opportunity) on Mars right now. They are transmitting back pictures and data which are advancing our understanding immensely. They landed on Mars separately in January 2004. From the latest NASA press release (emphasis is mine):

The rovers have worked on Mars for more than 10 times their originally planned three-month missions. "Opportunity shows a few signs of aging but is in good shape for undertaking exploration of Victoria crater," said John Callas, project manager for the rovers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.

Pretty impressive, and the link above is very informative (lots of interesting pictures too).

Russia v. Georgia

The President of Georgia, in an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal today, neatly summarizes the Asian crisis that no one is paying attention to:

The past week was a trying one for Georgia. Air, rail, sea, land and postal links were severed unilaterally by our largest neighbor, the Russian Federation. Immediately thereafter, Georgians living in Russia were subjected to a form of ethnic targeting not seen in Europe since the Balkans in the 1990s--and the harassment is tinged with even more sinister historical overtones. Hundreds are being deported; business owners are being harassed; schoolchildren are being forcibly registered with local police; women are being gratuitously tested for sexually transmitted diseases; and children are being torn from families.
Regarding the four Russian officers who were accused of spying and detained for 72 hours, Saakashvili explicitly states that this is not the first time this type of thing has happened (emphasis is mine):

In fact, the most puzzling aspect of Russia's latest onslaught is that it was unprovoked. A week ago, after holding a group of Russian intelligence officers for just 72 hours after they were caught red-handed spying on Georgia, my government released them. Regrettably, this was not the first instance when individuals involved in similar--even lethal--acts were detained and handed over to Russian authorities.
This situation to me is reminiscent of China and Taiwan. China wants us to question whether defending tiny little meaningless Taiwan would be worth the destruction and loss of life (possibly to Los Angeles), while Russia similarly wants us to question whether defending tiny little Georgia would be worth losing support in the War on Terror and the Iranian and North Korean nuclear situations, as well as access to Russia's natural resources (read: oil and natural gas).

Another random thought: imagine the outcry if four CIA officers were caught murdering someone in a foreign capital?

Friday, October 06, 2006

Trouble in Georgia

Tensions are escalating between Russia and Georgia, following the arrest of four Russian military officers accused of spying last week and the subsequent levelling of sanctions by Russia.

The arrests were met with outrage by the Russians. Following the arrests, the pro-U.S. Georgian government released the four officers and sent them back to Russia (probably due to pressure from western nations eager to avoid a confrontation). Yesterday (per the Wall Street Journal), Russia cut off all flights, trains, shipping, roads, and postal links to Georgia, as well as closing Georgian-owned businesses in Russia and imposing new visa restrictions on Georgians. The Russian Parliament this week will consider a bill to block Georgians in Russia from making bank transfers to their relatives at home. These actions look suspiciously like a prelude to war.

Russia is angry with Georgia for:

a) asserting itself (independent of Russia)
b) taking a pro - U.S., pro-democracy line
c) becoming a part of NATO

Georgia is angry with Russia for:

a) supporting separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
b) attempting to make Georgia part of its sphere of influence (a la Soviet times)

The United States is eager to extend its influence into Central Asia, and until recently had appeared to be doing so on the strength of a series of democratic revolutions and U.S.-friendly regimes. However, the Russians, flush with cash from high oil prices, have become increasingly bold in their opposition (sound familiar?).

The United States is anxious to avoid hostilities because it needs Russian support for the War on Terror and for sanctions and/or military action against Iran, and also because it has a strong interest in a stable flow of oil to world markets. The Europeans are anxious to avoid hostilities because they don't want their supply of oil from Russia cut off.

While the mainstream media obsesses about the Foley scandal, keep your eyes on this story - it could evolve into a real problem (and I would guess that it is very high on the Bush Administration's radar screen right now).

Monday, October 02, 2006

Roundup

Steyn on conditions at Guantanamo

Ledeen on Condoleeza Rice and Iran

Kristol, with reference to Bob Woodward's new book State of Denial, asks who is really in denial?

The Belmont Club (and Iraq the Model and Bill Roggio) with 2 updates (here and here) on the Baghdad curfew which took place over the weekend - there are rumors of a coup attempt